Basketball Zero Zones Tier List Explained
This article ranks basketball “zero zones” — areas on the court where a player is highly inefficient — into tiers, and explains what makes a zone a zero. You get a clear tier list, the reasoning behind each tier, and how to use this knowledge to improve shot selection.
What Is a Zero Zone?
A zero zone is a spot on the basketball court where the expected points per shot attempt are near zero or even negative relative to league average. These are typically long two-point jumpers from the mid-range, especially from the corners or straight away, where the shooter is far from the basket but not far enough to earn a three-point attempt. The term gained traction in analytics circles because these shots are the least efficient in the game: they produce roughly 0.8 points per attempt league-wide, compared to about 1.1 for three-pointers and 1.2 for shots at the rim.
Zero zones are not fixed for every player — they depend on individual shooting ability. A player who shoots 45% from mid-range might have no zero zones, while a player who shoots 30% from there has several. The tier list below uses league-average shooting percentages to define the zones, then adjusts for context.
The Tier List: Where the Zeros Live
Based on NBA tracking data from recent seasons, the following tiers rank the most common zero zones from worst to least bad. Remember, these are for the average player, not elite shooters.
- S-Tier (Absolute Zero): Long mid-range from the wings (15-22 feet). These shots are taken at a high rate but convert at only 38-40% for most players. The expected points per shot (0.76-0.80) are below the value of a turnover (0) because you rarely get fouled and the rebound is often a defensive board. This is the classic “worst shot in basketball.”
- A-Tier (Near Zero): Mid-range from the corners (15-18 feet). These are slightly better than the wings because the angle is more direct, but they still yield only 0.80-0.85 points per attempt. They are especially bad because the corner three is available just a step back, making the two-point version a pure loss.
- B-Tier (Conditional Zero): Long two-pointers straight away (above the break, 18-22 feet). These are the least common mid-range shots, often taken late in the clock. They convert at 40-42% for average players, giving 0.82-0.86 points per attempt. They are still below league average, but the lower frequency makes them less damaging.
- C-Tier (Not Zero, But Not Good): Short mid-range (10-15 feet) from anywhere. These are floaters and pull-ups. They convert at 42-45% for average players (0.84-0.90 PPP). They are inefficient but not zero because they are often taken in traffic or after a drive, and they draw fouls at a slightly higher rate.
- D-Tier (Contextual Zero): Deep threes (30+ feet). For most players, these are zero zones because they convert at 30% or lower (0.90 PPP). However, for a few elite shooters (e.g., Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard), they are positive. For the average player, they are a bad shot.
Why Are These Zones Zero?
The math is simple: a two-point shot made at 40% gives 0.8 points per attempt. A three-point shot made at 35% gives 1.05 points per attempt. A layup made at 60% gives 1.2 points per attempt. The zero zone is the gap where the distance does not add enough value to offset the lower accuracy.
Additionally, zero zones are often the result of poor shot creation. They happen when a player settles for a contested mid-range jumper instead of driving or passing. The defense is happy to give up those shots because they are low-efficiency. In the modern NBA, teams actively hunt these shots for the opponent — they will go under screens to force a long two.
How to Identify Your Own Zero Zones
You do not need professional tracking data to find your own zero zones. Here is a simple method:
- Track your shots for 10 games. Write down the location (e.g., left wing, 18 feet), the shot type (catch-and-shoot, off-dribble), and whether it was contested.
- Calculate your shooting percentage for each location. You need at least 20 attempts per zone to get a meaningful sample.
- Compare your percentage to the league average for that zone. If you are below 40% on long twos, that is a zero zone for you.
- Look at your shot chart. If you see a cluster of red (misses) in one area, that is your personal zero zone.
Common Misconceptions
One common myth is that a zero zone is a fixed location on the court. It is not — it is a function of your skill. A player like Kevin Durant has no zero zones because he makes 50% of his mid-range shots. Another myth is that zero zones are only for bad shooters. Even good shooters have zero zones when they shoot off-balance or with a hand in their face. The zone is about the shot quality, not just the location.
Another misconception is that taking a zero-zone shot is always a mistake. Late in the shot clock, any shot is better than a turnover. The zero zone becomes a problem when it is a recurring choice, not a last resort.
How Teams Use Zero Zones
Defenses actively try to force opponents into zero zones. They will go under screens for non-shooters, sag off in the mid-range, and give up the long two to protect the rim and the three-point line. Offenses counter by designing plays that get to the rim or the three-point line, and by using analytics to tell players which shots to take.
For example, the Houston Rockets under Mike D’Antoni famously eliminated most mid-range shots from their offense. They led the league in three-point attempts and shots at the rim, and they were one of the most efficient offenses in history. The opposite approach — the mid-range heavy offense of the 2000s — is now seen as outdated because it produced too many zero-zone shots.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the worst shot in basketball?
The long two-point jumper from the wing (18-22 feet) is statistically the worst. It is worth only two points but is made at a rate similar to a three-pointer (around 38-40% for average players), giving it the lowest expected points per shot.
Is the mid-range shot always a zero zone?
No. For elite shooters like Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard, the mid-range is a positive shot. For average players, it is a zero zone. The term is relative to the shooter’s ability.
Why do players still take zero-zone shots?
Because they are often open, and the alternative (driving into a crowded paint) may result in a turnover. Also, some players are more comfortable from mid-range and shoot better than the league average, making it a positive for them.
Can a zero zone become a positive zone?
Yes, with practice. If a player improves their mid-range shooting to above 45%, that zone becomes positive. This is why some players work on mid-range shots even though analytics discourage them — they want to make it a weapon.
How does the tier list change for college or high school?
At lower levels, the three-point line is shorter, so the value of a three-pointer is lower. Also, players are less skilled, so the mid-range may be even less efficient. The general principle holds: long twos are bad, but the exact tiers shift.
What is the difference between a zero zone and a “dead zone”?
They are the same concept. “Dead zone” is an older term for the same idea — a spot where the offense gets no value. Some analysts use them interchangeably.
Practical Takeaways
If you are a player, use this tier list to evaluate your own shot selection. If you are a coach, use it to design your offense and defense. The key is not to eliminate all mid-range shots, but to eliminate the ones that are inefficient for your team. Track your shots, know your percentages, and make the math work in your favor.
Related
Method: the standard formula for this calculation, rounded as each result states. See how the calculators work or report an error.