Turnip Calculator Pattern: How It Works

The turnip calculator pattern refers to the mathematical model used by the game Animal Crossing: New Horizons to generate the daily turnip (stalk) prices at Nook’s Cranny. You input the prices you observe each morning and afternoon, and the calculator identifies which of four possible price patterns you are in and predicts future prices for the rest of the week.

Formula

The turnip price in Animal Crossing: New Horizons follows one of four hidden patterns, each with its own formula. The game uses a random seed and a set of internal variables to determine which pattern you get for the week. The four patterns are:

• Fluctuating: Prices go up and down randomly, with no clear trend.
• Large Spike: Prices stay low most of the week, then spike to a high value (often 400–600 bells) for one or two half-day periods.
• Small Spike: Similar to large spike but with a lower peak (usually 150–400 bells).
• Decreasing: Prices start high and drop steadily throughout the week.

The exact formulas are derived from data-mining the game’s code. The key variables are the base price (the price you bought turnips for on Sunday) and a set of internal “rate” values that change each half-day. The calculator uses the observed prices to fit the most likely pattern.

Worked Example

Suppose you bought turnips for 100 bells each on Sunday. On Monday morning, the price is 100 bells, and in the afternoon it is 110 bells. Enter these values into the calculator with day = 1 (Monday). The calculator checks each pattern’s expected price range. For the fluctuating pattern, Monday morning might be 90–110, and afternoon 100–120. Your observed 100 and 110 fit that pattern. For the decreasing pattern, Monday morning is usually 100–110, and afternoon 90–100, so your afternoon 110 would not fit. The calculator outputs pattern = 0, meaning fluctuating. It then predicts Tuesday morning and afternoon prices using the fluctuating formula, which might give 95 and 105, and so on.

How to Use the Calculator

To get accurate predictions, you must enter every price you see, twice a day (morning and afternoon). The game updates prices at 8 AM and 12 PM (noon) local time. The more data you enter, the more confident the pattern identification becomes. Most turnip calculators also allow you to enter the Sunday buy price, which helps narrow down the possible patterns.

Common Mistakes

• Entering the wrong day: Make sure you select the correct day of the week (Monday through Saturday).
• Mixing up morning and afternoon: The morning price is valid from 8 AM to 12 PM, and the afternoon price from 12 PM to 10 PM (when the shop closes).
• Not updating after a pattern change: Sometimes the game’s random seed can cause a pattern to shift if you time-travel. Always reset the calculator if you change the system clock.
• Assuming the pattern is fixed: The pattern is determined at the start of the week, but the exact prices are random within that pattern. The calculator gives probabilities, not certainties.

Limitations and Accuracy

Turnip calculators are based on data-mined formulas, so they are accurate for the game’s code. However, they cannot predict the exact price because the game uses a random number generator. The calculator gives a range of possible prices for each half-day, and the actual price will fall within that range. The more data you enter, the narrower the range becomes. For example, after two days of data, the calculator might predict a large spike on Thursday afternoon with a range of 400–600 bells. That is the best you can get without knowing the random seed.

Why Use a Turnip Calculator?

Turnips are a major way to earn Bells in Animal Crossing: New Horizons. You buy them on Sunday for a price between 90 and 110 bells, and you must sell them before the next Sunday or they rot. A calculator helps you decide when to sell: if the pattern is decreasing, you should sell immediately; if it is a spike, you wait for the peak. This can mean the difference between a small profit and a huge one. For example, buying at 100 and selling at 500 yields a 400% profit, while selling at 150 yields only 50%.

Alternatives to Manual Calculation

Many websites and apps offer turnip calculators, but they all use the same underlying formulas. Some also track your island’s turnip prices over time, and some allow you to share prices with friends to find islands with high prices (the “turnip market”). However, you can also use a simple spreadsheet to track prices and manually compare them to known pattern ranges. The patterns are well-documented online, so you can even predict without a calculator if you understand the ranges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best turnip pattern?

The large spike pattern is the best because it gives the highest peak price, often 400–600 bells. The small spike is second best, with peaks around 150–400. The fluctuating pattern can also be profitable if you catch a high point, but it is unpredictable. The decreasing pattern is the worst—sell immediately to minimize losses.

How many times a day do turnip prices change?

Turnip prices change twice a day: once at 8 AM (morning price) and once at 12 PM (afternoon price). The shop closes at 10 PM, so the afternoon price is in effect from noon until closing.

Can I time travel to get a better turnip price?

Time traveling (changing the system clock) can reset the turnip price pattern. If you travel forward or backward, the game may generate a new random seed, which can change the pattern. However, if you travel to a Sunday, your turnips will rot. It is generally not recommended because it can mess up your island’s events and turnip spoilage.

Why did my turnips rot?

Turnips rot if you time travel backward, or if you travel forward past the next Sunday. They also rot if you leave them on the ground and travel. Once rotten, they attract ants and flies, but you cannot sell them.

Do turnip prices depend on the island’s native fruit or other factors?

No, turnip prices are completely random and independent of your island’s fruit, flowers, or other features. The only factors are the base price you paid and the hidden pattern for the week.

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in t | Morning price | bells | 100 | 0
in a | Afternoon price | bells | 110 | 0
in d | Day of week (Mon=1..Sat=6) | - | 1 | 1
out pattern | Predicted pattern | - | 0 | 0