NFL Draft Order Calculator: How It Works

This calculator works out the NFL draft order for the non-playoff teams based on regular-season records, using the official tie-breaking rules. You enter each team’s win-loss-tie record and, where needed, their strength of schedule, and you get back the sorted draft position for all 18 non-playoff teams. The result is the exact order in which those teams will pick in the first round, assuming no trades.

Formula

The NFL draft order for non-playoff teams is based on the reverse order of each team’s winning percentage, with ties counting as half a win and half a loss. The formula used here is:

Pick = 1 + (17 × (W / (W + L + T))) + (0.5 × T / (W + L + T))

Where:

• W = number of wins
• L = number of losses
• T = number of ties
• Pick = the draft slot (1 through 18) for a non-playoff team

This gives a fractional number that represents the team’s position. The team with the lowest winning percentage gets the lowest number (closest to 1), which is the first pick. The calculator sorts teams by this value, but for a single team, it shows where that team would rank if all other teams had the same record.

Worked Example

Using the default values from the calculator: a team with 4 wins, 12 losses, 0 ties, and a strength of schedule of 0.520.

1. Total games = 4 + 12 + 0 = 16
2. Winning percentage = (4 + 0.5×0) / 16 = 4 / 16 = 0.250
3. Draft position value = 1 + (17 × 0.250) + (0.5 × 0 / 16) = 1 + 4.25 + 0 = 5.25
4. Rounded to the nearest whole number, this team would pick 5th.

So a 4-12 team with no ties and a .250 winning percentage would be the 5th pick in the first round, assuming no other team has the same record and no trades.

How the Real NFL Draft Order Works

The actual NFL draft order is determined by the reverse order of the previous season’s standings. The team with the worst record picks first, the second-worst picks second, and so on. The 18 non-playoff teams pick in the first 18 slots, followed by the 14 playoff teams in reverse order of their postseason finish (Super Bowl winner picks last).

Since 2020, the NFL has used a 17-game regular season, so the maximum number of games is 17. Ties are rare but possible; they count as half a win and half a loss for winning percentage purposes.

Tie-Breaking Rules

When two or more non-playoff teams have the same winning percentage, the NFL uses a series of tiebreakers to determine the draft order. The primary tiebreaker is strength of schedule, which is the combined winning percentage of all 17 opponents a team faced. The team with the weaker schedule (lower strength of schedule) picks earlier.

If strength of schedule is also tied, the next tiebreakers are, in order:

• Division tiebreakers (if teams are in the same division)
• Conference tiebreakers (if teams are in the same conference)
• Interconference tiebreakers (if teams are in different conferences)
• A coin flip as a last resort

This calculator only handles the primary strength-of-schedule tiebreaker, which is the most common. For deeper ties, you would need to apply the full NFL tiebreaking procedure manually.

How to Use This Calculator

To get a complete draft order, you would need to enter the record and strength of schedule for every non-playoff team. However, this calculator is designed for a single team: enter that team’s wins, losses, ties, and strength of schedule, and it will show you the draft slot that team would occupy if it were the only team with that record.

For a full 18-team order, you would need to calculate the value for each team and then sort them from lowest to highest. The formula gives a number that directly corresponds to the pick order, so sorting is straightforward.

Note that this calculator does not account for trades. If a team trades its first-round pick, the pick goes to the team that acquired it, but the draft slot itself remains the same as the original team’s position.

Common Mistakes and Misconceptions

One common mistake is confusing the draft order with the regular-season standings. The draft order is the reverse of the standings, so a team that finishes 0-17 picks first, not last. Another mistake is forgetting that ties count as half a win and half a loss, not as a separate category. A team with 8-8-1 has a winning percentage of .500, not .529.

Another misconception is that strength of schedule is based on the opponents’ records at the time the games were played. In reality, it is based on the opponents’ final records for the entire season, including playoff games? No, actually, it is based on the opponents’ final regular-season records only, not including playoffs.

Finally, many people think the draft order is set immediately after the regular season ends. In fact, the order is not finalized until after the Super Bowl, because the playoff teams’ picks depend on their postseason results. The non-playoff teams’ picks are set after Week 18, but the full order is not official until the season ends.

Limitations of the Formula

This formula gives a precise numeric value for a team’s draft position, but it has limitations. First, it only works for non-playoff teams; playoff teams are ordered by their finish, not by record. Second, it assumes all teams play the same number of games, which is true in the NFL (17 games), but if a game is cancelled or postponed and not rescheduled, the formula would need adjustment.

Third, the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker is only one of several. If two teams have identical records and identical strength of schedule, the formula cannot break the tie. You would need to apply the next tiebreaker manually.

Finally, the formula does not account for the fact that the NFL draft order includes picks from trades. The pick number is tied to the team that originally held the pick, not the team that acquired it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is the NFL draft order determined?

The draft order is determined by the reverse order of the previous season’s final standings. The team with the worst record picks first, and the Super Bowl winner picks last. Non-playoff teams pick in the first 18 slots, then playoff teams in order of their postseason finish.

What is strength of schedule in the NFL draft?

Strength of schedule is the combined winning percentage of all 17 opponents a team faced during the regular season. It is the primary tiebreaker for draft order when two non-playoff teams have the same record. The team with the weaker schedule gets the earlier pick.

Do ties count as wins or losses in the draft order?

Ties count as half a win and half a loss for winning percentage purposes. For example, a team with an 8-8-1 record has a winning percentage of .500, the same as a 9-9 record (though 9-9 is not possible in a 17-game season). This affects the draft order calculation.

Can a team move up in the draft order due to a trade?

Yes, teams can trade draft picks, but the pick number itself does not change. If Team A trades its first-round pick to Team B, Team B picks in Team A’s slot. The draft order is based on the original team’s record, not the team that ends up with the pick.

When is the NFL draft order finalized?

The non-playoff teams’ picks are set after the regular season ends in early January. The full draft order, including playoff teams, is finalized after the Super Bowl in February. However, the order can change if the NFL adjusts records due to forfeits or other penalties.

How often does the worst team actually get the first pick?

In the NFL, the worst team always gets the first pick, unlike the NBA or NHL which use a lottery. So the team with the worst record picks first every year, unless they trade the pick. This has been the case since the NFL draft began in 1936.

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in t | Team 1 wins | - | 4 | 0
in d | Team 1 losses | - | 12 | 0
in tie | Team 1 ties | - | 0 | 0
in sos | Team 1 strength of schedule | - | 0.520 | 0
out pick | Draft position | - | 1 + (17 * (t / (t + d + tie))) + (0.5 * tie / (t + d + tie)) | 0