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How to Track a Hurricane: Forecasts, Maps & Key Terms

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How to Track a Hurricane: Forecasts, Maps & Key Terms

This guide explains how to monitor a hurricane from the first tropical wave to landfall. You’ll learn where to find official forecasts and maps, how to read them, and what terms like “cone of uncertainty” and “storm surge” really mean. No special equipment is needed—just an internet connection and a few minutes to set up your sources.

What You’ll Need

  • Internet access (computer, tablet, or smartphone)
  • A web browser or weather app
  • Your location (city or coordinates) to check local impacts
  • Optional: NOAA Weather Radio or local news for alerts

Step-by-Step

  1. Identify the official sources. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the U.S. authority for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. For other basins, use the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) or regional meteorological agencies (e.g., Japan Meteorological Agency, India Meteorological Department). Bookmark the NHC website: nhc.noaa.gov.
  2. Understand the advisory schedule. The NHC issues full advisories every 6 hours at 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, and 11 PM Eastern Time, with intermediate updates at 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM when a storm is active. Each advisory includes the storm’s position, intensity, movement, and forecast track.
  3. Read the public advisory. This is a text summary with the storm’s center location (latitude/longitude), maximum sustained winds, movement direction and speed, and current watches/warnings. It also lists the forecast for the next 72 hours.
  4. View the forecast track map (the “cone”). The NHC’s main map shows the predicted path of the storm’s center over 5 days. The cone represents the probable track error based on past forecasts—not the storm’s size. The storm can affect areas well outside the cone.
  5. Check the wind speed probability map. This map shows the chance that winds of at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), or 64 knots (74 mph) will occur at specific locations. It’s more useful for planning than the cone alone.
  6. Look at the storm surge map. The NHC provides a separate map showing potential storm surge heights above ground level. This is critical for coastal flooding. The map is based on the forecast track and intensity, and it updates with each advisory.
  7. Monitor rainfall and tornado threats. The NHC’s rainfall outlook shows expected totals for the next 3 days. Also check the Weather Prediction Center for excessive rainfall risk. Tornadoes are a common threat in the outer bands, so watch local warnings.
  8. Use the interactive map tools. The NHC has an interactive GIS map where you can layer track, wind radii, storm surge, and watches/warnings. You can zoom to your area and see if you’re under a warning.
  9. Understand key terms. Hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. Hurricane warning means conditions are expected within 36 hours. Storm surge is abnormal rise of water above the normal tide. Maximum sustained winds are the average wind speed over 1 minute at 33 feet above ground. Central pressure (in millibars) indicates intensity—lower is stronger.
  10. Follow local emergency management. Your local National Weather Service office and county emergency management will provide localized info, evacuation orders, and shelter locations. Sign up for alerts via text or email.

Common Mistakes

  • Confusing the cone with the impact area. The cone only shows the probable track of the center. Impacts (wind, rain, surge) can extend far outside it.
  • Focusing only on the category. Category 1 storms can still cause catastrophic flooding and surge. The category only reflects wind speed, not rainfall or surge potential.
  • Ignoring watches vs. warnings. A watch means prepare; a warning means act. Waiting for a warning may be too late.
  • Using unofficial apps or social media. They may spread outdated or false information. Always verify with NHC.
  • Not checking local forecasts. The NHC gives the big picture; your local NWS office knows the local terrain and infrastructure.

Tips

  • Take a screenshot of the forecast map at each advisory to see how the track changes over time.
  • Sign up for NHC email updates (they send a text version of each advisory).
  • If you live near the coast, learn your evacuation zone. It’s based on storm surge risk, not just distance from the beach.
  • Use the NHC’s “Key Messages” graphic for a quick summary of the biggest threats.
  • Remember that forecasts beyond 72 hours are less reliable. The cone widens with time.

Troubleshooting

  • Website is down or slow. During major storms, NHC can get overloaded. Use the mobile site (mobile.nhc.noaa.gov) or the NHC’s social media feeds. Also try the NOAA Weather Radio or local TV.
  • You don’t understand the maps. The NHC has a “Glossary” page and a “How to Read a Forecast Track Map” tutorial. Also check the FAQ section.
  • You’re not sure if your area is under a warning. Enter your ZIP code on the NHC site or use the interactive map. Local NWS pages also have a county-by-county breakdown.
  • You’re traveling and need forecasts for another basin. Use the JTWC for western Pacific or the World Meteorological Organization’s regional centers. The NHC covers only the Atlantic and eastern Pacific.
  • Your weather app shows different data. Apps often use private forecast models. Stick to the official NHC data for official watches/warnings.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the difference between a hurricane watch and a warning?

A watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning means they are expected within 36 hours. Warnings are more urgent and should trigger immediate action.

Why does the forecast cone get wider over time?

The cone represents the average forecast error over the past 5 years. Errors grow with time, so the cone widens. It does not mean the storm will get bigger.

How often are forecasts updated?

Full advisories every 6 hours, with intermediate updates every 3 hours when a storm is active. The NHC also issues special advisories when conditions change rapidly.

What does “maximum sustained winds” mean?

It’s the average wind speed over a 1-minute period at 33 feet (10 meters) above the ground. Gusts can be higher. This is the wind speed used for the Saffir-Simpson category.

Can I use the cone to know if my city will be hit?

No. The cone only shows the likely track of the center. Impacts can occur far from the center. Use the wind speed probabilities and local warnings instead.

What is storm surge and why is it dangerous?

Storm surge is the abnormal rise of water above the normal tide, caused by the storm’s winds pushing water onshore. It can flood coastal areas even if the storm is not a direct hit. It’s often the leading cause of hurricane deaths.

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