Canada-US air passenger traffic falls ninth month
Yes, Canada-US air passenger traffic has fallen for the ninth consecutive month, continuing a trend that began in late 2024. Data from the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) shows that the number of air travelers crossing between the two countries has declined each month compared to the same month a year earlier, with the most recent figures for July 2025 showing a significant drop.
Background: The Decline in Numbers
The decline began in November 2024, when air passenger traffic from Canada to the US fell by about 1% compared to November 2023. Since then, the monthly year-over-year decreases have grown steadily larger. By March 2025, the drop had reached 14.5%, and by July 2025, it stood at roughly 12% below July 2024 levels. The total number of Canadian air travelers to the US in July 2025 was approximately 1.2 million, down from about 1.4 million in July 2024.
This trend is not limited to one direction. US citizens flying to Canada have also decreased, though the percentage decline has been slightly smaller. In July 2025, US air arrivals in Canada were down about 8% year-over-year. The combined effect has been a noticeable reduction in cross-border air travel, affecting airlines, airports, and tourism-related businesses on both sides of the border.
Why Is This Happening?
Several factors contribute to the sustained decline. The most commonly cited reasons include:
- Economic conditions: The Canadian dollar has weakened against the US dollar, making travel to the US more expensive for Canadians. In mid-2025, the exchange rate hovered around 1.38 CAD per USD, compared to about 1.35 a year earlier.
- Trade tensions: Tariff disputes between the two countries have created uncertainty and, in some cases, prompted Canadians to boycott US travel as a form of protest. This sentiment was particularly strong in early 2025 when tariffs on Canadian goods were announced.
- Travel preferences: Some Canadians are choosing domestic destinations or other international locations instead of the US. Popular alternatives include Mexico, the Caribbean, and European cities.
- Border and entry concerns: Stricter enforcement and longer wait times at US border crossings have discouraged some travelers, especially those who previously made frequent short trips.
It is important to note that the decline is not uniform across all routes. For example, flights to Florida and Arizona, popular winter destinations for Canadians, have seen sharper drops than flights to New York or California. Similarly, business travel has declined more than leisure travel in percentage terms.
How the Data Is Collected
The statistics come from the CBSA, which records every traveler entering Canada by air. The agency publishes monthly data on traveler volumes by mode of transport and country of residence. For US-bound traffic, the US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) provides data on Canadian arrivals in the US, based on surveys and border crossing records.
It is worth noting that the data includes both Canadian citizens and US citizens traveling between the two countries. However, the majority of the decline has been driven by Canadian residents, who account for roughly 60% of all cross-border air passengers.
Impact on Airlines and Airports
The prolonged decline has had measurable effects on the aviation industry. Several Canadian airlines have reduced capacity on US routes, cutting frequencies or using smaller aircraft. For example, in spring 2025, one major Canadian carrier announced it would suspend service on a few less-profitable US routes, while another shifted some capacity to European and Asian markets.
US airports that rely heavily on Canadian visitors, such as those in Buffalo, Bellingham, and Great Falls, have reported lower passenger numbers. However, major hubs like New York’s JFK and Los Angeles International have seen less impact because they serve a more diverse international market.
Airfares on many Canada-US routes have actually decreased in response to lower demand. According to fare tracking data, average round-trip fares between Toronto and New York in mid-2025 were about 10% lower than the same period in 2024. This has made travel more affordable for those who do decide to fly, but the overall volume remains down.
Comparisons with Other Travel Modes
The decline in air travel is part of a broader trend. Car travel across the border has also fallen, though less sharply. In July 2025, vehicle crossings from Canada to the US were down about 5% year-over-year. Rail and bus services have seen similar modest declines.
Interestingly, the decline in US-bound travel has been partially offset by an increase in travel to Canada from other countries. For example, arrivals from Europe and Asia to Canada have grown by 4-6% in 2025, helping to cushion the overall impact on Canadian tourism revenue.
Common Misconceptions
One misconception is that the decline is solely due to political tensions. While that is a factor, economic considerations such as the exchange rate and inflation play a larger role. Another misconception is that the decline is uniform across all demographics. In reality, younger Canadians (18-34) have reduced their US travel more than older age groups, possibly due to social media campaigns encouraging domestic travel.
Some also assume that the decline is a temporary blip. However, the nine-month duration suggests it is a structural shift, at least for the near term. Airlines and tourism boards are adjusting their strategies accordingly, with some Canadian destinations launching marketing campaigns to attract domestic travelers.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the decline in air traffic likely to continue?
Most industry analysts expect the trend to persist through the rest of 2025, barring a major change in the economic or political climate. The fall and winter months are historically busy for Canadians traveling to sun destinations, so the upcoming season will be a key test. If the Canadian dollar strengthens or trade tensions ease, the decline could moderate.
What does this mean for airfares?
Lower demand typically leads to lower fares, and that has been the case on many Canada-US routes. However, airlines have also reduced capacity, which can offset some of the price decreases. Travelers who are flexible with dates and destinations can still find competitive deals.
Are US citizens also traveling less to Canada?
Yes, US air arrivals in Canada have declined, but at a slower pace than Canadian departures. The US decline is more closely tied to the strong US dollar, which makes Canadian travel relatively affordable, and to general economic uncertainty.
Which Canadian cities are most affected?
Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, the busiest international gateways, have seen the largest absolute declines. However, smaller airports like Halifax and Ottawa have also reported significant percentage drops, as many travelers from those regions previously flew to US hubs for connections.
How does this compare to previous downturns?
The current decline is similar in magnitude to the one following the 2008 financial crisis, when air traffic fell for about a year before recovering. However, the current situation is unique because it is driven more by policy and currency factors than by a global recession.
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